Navigation
Academic Basketball Articles
The Five Factors of Optimal Free Throw Shooting
(with Allan Maymin and Eugene Shen)
We use three-dimensional optical tracking data on the 25-frames-per-second positional data of 2,400 free throw shots by the twenty players with at least twelve makes and twelve misses over the course of the 2010-2011 NBA season, fit each trajectory to a comprehensive physics model to find the implied backspin, initial launch height, velocity, angle, and left-right deviation, and examine the differences of those five factors between makes and misses for each player with sufficient attempts in our sample. We find that usually one or two factors are most responsible for a given player's misses, but the particular factors at fault differ across players. Thus, the causes of suboptimality in free throw shooting are idiosyncratic. This framework may also be useful in analyzing jump shots taken during the game.
Available on SSRN.
Citation: Maymin, Allan; Maymin, Philip Z.; Shen, Eugene (2011), "The Five Factors of Optimal Free Throw Shooting," Working Paper.
NBA Chemistry: Positive and Negative Synergies in Basketball
(with Allan Maymin and Eugene Shen)
We introduce a novel Skills Plus Minus ("SPM") framework to measure on-court chemistry in basketball. First, we evaluate each player's offense and defense in the SPM framework based on three basic categories of skills: scoring, rebounding, and ball-handling. We then simulate games using the skill ratings of the ten players on the court. The results of the simulations measure the effectiveness of individual players as well as the 5-player lineup, so we can then calculate the synergies of each NBA team by comparing their 5-player lineup's effectiveness to the "sum-of-the-parts." We find that these synergies can be large and meaningful. Because skills have different synergies with other skills, our framework predicts that a player's value is dependent on the other nine players on the court. Therefore, the desirability of a free agent depends on the players currently on the roster. Indeed, our framework is able to generate mutually beneficial trades between teams. Other ratings systems cannot generate mutually beneficial trades since one player is always rated above another. We find more than two hundred mutually beneficial trades between NBA teams, situations where the skills of the traded players fit better on their trading partner's team.
Citation: Maymin, Allan; Maymin, Philip Z.; Shen, Eugene (2011), "NBA Chemistry: Positive and Negative Synergies in Basketball," Working Paper.
Presentations
- 6th Annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, March 2-3, 2012
Media and Press
- New York Times: Off the Dribble
- ESPN TV: Numbers Never Lie
- CBS Sports
- ESPN TrueHoop (2012)
- Basketball Prospectus (2012)
- ESPN TrueHoop (2011)
Blogs and Discussions
- APBRmetrics (35 comments)
- Paul Kedrosky
SSRN Top Ten Download Lists
- Behavioral & Experimental Finance eJournal
- Decision Analysis eJournal
- Decision Making, Organizational Behavior & Performance eJournal
- Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics eJournal
- ERN: Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk & Uncertainty (Topic)
- ERN: Team Theory (Topic)
- ERN: Sports Economics (Topic)
- FEN: Behavioral Finance (Topic)
- Labor eJournals
- Labor: Human Capital eJournal
- Labor: Personnel Economics eJournal
- Management Research Network
- Microeconomic Theory eJournals
- MRN Operations Research Network
- MRN Organizational Behavior Research Network
- Microeconomic Theory eJournals
- OPER Subject Matter eJournal
- OPER: Single Decision Maker (Topic)
- ORG Subject Matter eJournals
- ORG: Groups & Teams (Topic)
- Organizations & Markets: Personnel Management eJournal
- Organizations & Markets eJournals
How Much Trouble is Early Foul Trouble?
(with Allan Maymin and Eugene Shen)
We analyze a large and comprehensive play-by-play dataset of professional games in the National Basketball Association using tools from financial economics to explore the optimality of strategically idling resources in the face of uncertain future demand. We find that starters ought to be idled by the coach on a "Q+1" basis, meaning that a starter has one more foul than the current quarter, when the future option value is high or the value of the replacement player is high. We use a novel win-probability approach that can be easily extended to other applications.
Available on SSRN. Data source: BasketballGeek. Download PDF.
Citation: Maymin, Allan; Maymin, Philip Z.; Shen, Eugene (2012), "How Much Trouble is Early Foul Trouble?", International Journal of Sport Finance, 7:4, forthcoming.
Citation: Maymin, Allan; Maymin, Philip Z.; Shen, Eugene (2011), "How Much Trouble is Early Foul Trouble?", Proceedings of the 5th Annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference,.
Presentations
- 5th Annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, March 5, 2011
- Southern Economic Association, November 19, 2011
Blogs and Discussions
- Paul Kedrosky
- YCombinator Hacker News (15 comments)
- Baylor Fans (3 comments)
- Fighting Illini Basketball (12 comments)
- APBRmetrics
- Marginal Revolution (1 comment)
Media and Press
- Basketball Prospectus: "Rethinking Foul Trouble" by Kevin Pelton
- ESPN TrueHoop: "How much trouble is early foul trouble?" by Brian Robb
- ESPN TrueHoop: "Research: Bench starters with fouls because they play poorly" by Henry Abbott
- The Atlantic: "NBA Coaches Should Yank Starters in Foul Trouble, Say Economists" by Derek Thompson
SSRN Top Ten Download Lists
- Behavioral & Experimental Finance (Editor's Choice) eJournal
- Behavioral & Experimental Finance eJournal
- FEN: Behavioral Finance (Topic)
- Economics Research Network
- Financial Economics Network
- ERN Subject Matter eJournals
- FEN Subject Matter eJournals
- ERN: Other Microeconomics: Decision-Making under Risk & Uncertainty (Topic)
- Microeconomic Theory eJournals
- Microeconomics: Decision-Making under Risk & Uncertainty eJournal
Archived Articles for Basketball News Services
From about January 2004 through May 2005, I was an Editor for Basketball News Services, covering the NBA for Hoopsworld.com. I was credentialed with the New Jersey Nets.
In that time, I wrote more than 600 articles, almost all of which are archived here:
- 81 weekly articles (longer, more analytic columns)
- 518 daily articles (shorter, team-specific pieces)
NBA Mysticism: Prophecies Fulfilled and Fortunes Told
A collection of some of the longer, more analytical articles is now available in print.  |
Prophecies Proved Prescient for the NBA
Telling the NBA's Fortune
Maybe it is a way to experience the present from the perspective of the past. Or maybe it is the first step in viewing basketball as a religious experience. Available on Amazon.com. |