We analyze a large and comprehensive play-by-play dataset of professional games in the National Basketball Association using tools from financial economics to explore the optimality of strategically idling resources in the face of uncertain future demand. We find that starters ought to be idled by the coach on a "Q+1" basis, meaning that a starter has one more foul than the current quarter, when the future option value is high or the value of the replacement player is high. We use a novel win-probability approach that can be easily extended to other applications.
Available on SSRN and IJSF. Data source: BasketballGeek. Download PDF.
Citation: Maymin, Allan; Maymin, Philip Z.; Shen, Eugene (2012), "How Much Trouble is Early Foul Trouble?", International Journal of Sport Finance 7:4, 324-339.
Citation: Maymin, Allan; Maymin, Philip Z.; Shen, Eugene (2011), "How Much Trouble is Early Foul Trouble?", Proceedings of the 5th Annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.
Presentations
- 5th Annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, March 5, 2011
- Southern Economic Association, November 19, 2011
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Media and Press
- The Wages of Wins Journal: "Adjusting Priors in Science, Basketball, and Life" by Allan Maymin, Philip Maymin, and Eugene Shen
- Slate: The Truth About Foul Trouble
- Basketball Prospectus: "Rethinking Foul Trouble" by Kevin Pelton
- ESPN TrueHoop: "How much trouble is early foul trouble?" by Brian Robb
- ESPN TrueHoop: "Research: Bench starters with fouls because they play poorly" by Henry Abbott
- The Atlantic: "NBA Coaches Should Yank Starters in Foul Trouble, Say Economists" by Derek Thompson