Orlando

Come on Down, Round Mound of Rebound!

Philip Maymin
Basketball News Services 

Moneyball comes to Orlando! Open up the brain that is Magic GM John Weisbrod and you will find a guy that not only looks for the defense and toughness he has proclaimed far and wide, but also a guy that looks for undervalued players with a quantitative approach. Weisbrod pulled off a tremendous trade in moving a soon-to-be-disgruntled Keith Bogans to Charlotte for Brandon Hunter, a hardworking power forward with a knack for rebounding. Despite a relatively weak preseason showing as a Bobcat, Hunter's abilities did not go ignored by Weisbrod. Why? Probably because he's using an analytical, quantitative system.

Hunter was a second-round pick of the Boston Celtics in last year's draft, a four-year player whose rebounding numbers jump off the charts. Given the rule of thumb that we know about rebounding numbers being among the most consistent from college to the pros, this was a smart decision by Boston's staff. However, they exposed him to Charlotte for the expansion draft since it was pretty clear he wouldn't make the rotation this season anyway.

Hunter was beloved in Boston not only for his work ethic and rebounding, but for the tenacity with which he did everything on the court, from subbing to starting to cheering to playing strong against Indiana's Jermaine O'Neal in the playoffs. His best stretch came in late February of last season as he seemed to grab double-digit rebounds every game with the greatest of ease. He got a double-double and he earned himself a starting role. Soon, however, his minutes deteriorated, ostensibly because opponents were able to adjust to him pretty easily. He will not be a great starter, at least for now, but he can be a terrific role player off the bench.

But what's the biggest indication that Weisbrod bought into Hunter on an analytical, quantitative basis and not just because he's a potentially tough cookie? The fact that Hunter is one of three Magic players (the others being Andrew DeClercq and Mario Kasun) on the injured list. You don't trade for an injured player unless you expect him to be as consistent post-injury as he was before, and Hunter is too unproven in the traditional sense to bet on him without some additional kind of support. My bet is Weisbrod is relying on standard analytical and quantitative systems.

If done the right way, this approach could really help the Magic. If done the wrong way, it at worst introduces a bias that other GM's can potentially take advantage of.

With this move, Weisbrod also frees up some showcasing minutes for DeShawn Stevenson until mid-December and also fills the Magic's biggest hole at backup power forward. Is it unthinkable that Hunter could beat out Dwight Howard sometime this year? Probably so, if for no other reason than marketing.

But Hunter has filled the Magic's sole gaping hole. Now there's nothing stopping this season from getting underway but the tick of the clock.

NEXT GAME
The Magic (4-3 in the preseason) host the Milwaukee Bucks (4-4 in the preseason) on Wednesday, November 3rd to kick off opening night in Orlando. The Magic may be this season's Bucks: an initially underrated competitor that rises to become one of the top few teams in the East. Tip-off is set for 7:00 p.m. Eastern/6:00 p.m. Central. The game will be broadcast on the Sunshine Network. Tickets are still available for this game at the TD Waterhouse Centre.

TEAM NOTES
The Orlando Magic web site asks the question: who will be the Magic's MVP this season? The overwhelming answer from fans is Steve Francis with 58% of the votes. Grant Hill was a distant second with 20%.

Tracy McGrady re-signed with the Houston Rockets, essentially completing the deal that brought Steve Francis et al. to Orlando.

INJURY UPDATE
Andrew DeClercq(knee)is stillrehabilitating after off-season surgery for the next two to four weeks and is on the injured reserve list. Joining him areMario Kasun(tendinitis in left knee) andBrandon Hunter(tendinitis in right Achilles).