Best Regular Season Record
Here's how I think the Eastern Conference Playoffs will shape up:
Central Division Champions: Indiana Pacers
Rick Carlisle has been one of the best regular season coaches for the past
three years. This may be Reggie's final year. Jermaine O'Neal is bigger and
better. The only question mark is will Ron Artest remain the mature player he
was for most of the regular season or will he be the guy whose personality
peeked out at points during the playoffs and this offseason?
Atlantic Division Champions: Boston Celtics
This is a layup. Only other Atlantic team can even make the playoffs, and
that will likely be the Knicks competing for the eighth spot. The Celtics are
much like the Phoenix Suns except they also have a center. Re-signing Mark
Blount was probably their most important move of the offseason. Plus, with Gary
Payton already teaching Marcus Banks more than he was taught all of last season,
Boston's bench is among the best and deepest in the league.
Southeast Division Champions: Miami Heat
I'm not 100% sure of this one. The Heat will no doubt be in the playoffs but
Shaq's team may very well sneak up on people. There's a solid chance the Heat
don't beat out the Magic for the top spot. But that chance is less than 50% so
the nod goes to the favorites. This is probably the team in the league that is
most sensitive to any injury to its best player.
And the rest:
Detroit Pistons
Perhaps the deepest frontcourt of any team in the league. The defending
champions. One of the best backcourts in the league. Great character and
locker-room presence. The Pistons will give a challenge all the way to the wire
to the Indiana Pacers for the regular season record, and might just break
through. This is the closest divisional championship in the league.
Orlando Magic
Even without Tracy McGrady, this is a very talented team, and GM John
Weisbrod recognized the importance of having a solid center, and he has two in
Kelvin Cato and Tony Battie. The biggest question mark is who is going to play
backup minutes behind Dwight Howard, or even in front of Howard if it turns out
he is not quite ready for prime time. Whoever it is will be playing at least
slightly out of position.
Cleveland Cavaliers
They have a slew of excellent point guards in Jeff McInnis, Eric Snow, and
LeBron James, each of whom could play either backcourt position, and James can
even play small forward. Z is ready to go and Drew Gooden is going to
rehabilitate his career and his value. This will be a very exciting team to
watch and one that could potentially challenge for the title of most team
assists.
Washington Wizards
Though they are essentially the Golden State Warriors of a few seasons back
with Antawn Jamison, Gilbert Arenas, and Larry Hughes, they also have a solid
frontcourt, and a terrific coach in Eddie Jordan. They will run and they will
defend. They may not follow the same path as the Nets did of going to the Finals
one year after going to the lottery, but they have a terrific shot at the
playoffs.
New York Knicks
For all the hoopla, the utility function of the Knicks doesn't seem to be
winning championships or even regular seasons, but creating an exciting and
interesting brand of basketball. For example, Isiah Thomas would probably never
trade Stephon Marbury and Jamal Crawford for, hypothetically speaking, Baron
Davis and Jamaal Magloire, because his Knicks are his favorites, and he needs to
give New Yorkers someone to cheer for even when they're losing. The Knicks
should be paying players less than other teams, given the increased endorsement
opportunities the players would get, but they pay more. Sigh. The Knicks are
valuing community relations a little more than winning, but they do have enough
talent to probably sneak into the playoffs. It might be close, however, with the
Sixers hot on their tail.
Lottery:
Philadelphia 76ers, Milwaukee Bucks, New Jersey Nets, Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Toronto Raptors, Charlotte Bobcats
Here's how I think the Western Conference Playoffs will shape up:
Southwest Division Champions: Houston Rockets
They may be competing for the best regular season record after the All-Star
break. It might take them a little while to gel but when they do, man, look out.
A lineup of Yao Ming, Juwan Howard, Jim Jackson, Tracy McGrady, and anyone at
point ought to make the opposition shudder. If they can get a brand-name point
guard to run the show, if they could have gotten someone like Eric Snow, they
would be the favorites to make a run at the 72 win record. Even with dependable
Charlie Ward or triple-double threat Bobby Sura running things, they will be
near the top of the league in defense, just because it is Jeff Van Gundy's show
after all, and they will, finally, be near the top of the league in offense,
just because these guys all know how to get the ball in the hole with the least
resistance.
Pacific Division Champions: LA Lakers
Kobe Bryant's arguably the world's best player and despite the absence of
Shaq he is still surrounded by incredible talent. Caron Butler will return to
form. Lamar Odom will maintain last year's strides. Brian Grant and Vlade Divac
will man the middle. Chucky Atkins will get the ball to Kobe. Their biggest
challenger will probably be the Phoenix Suns, who, if they had a strong center,
would probably get the advantage.
Northwest Division Champions: Denver Nuggets
Another tight one, this one a three-way competition. I see both the
Timberwolves and the Jazz challenging for this spot, and even though Denver has
some issues including tension among players and between coaches and players,
they have the excellent combination of amazing talent, clear vision, and depth.
They are strong at every position except shooting guard, and if Carmelo Anthony
slides over to that spot and Kenyon Martin moves to the three, they would have a
very tall yet very explosive lineup. Martin was a sensational pickup for the
fast-breaking Nuggets.
And the rest:
San Antonio Spurs
Their two best players are tired from the Olympics. They got a great pickup
in Brent Barry. They will as always improve going into the end of the regular
season but they might not have enough gas in the tank to overtake the Rockets
for the best record in their division.
Phoenix Suns
This is going to be a very exciting team. They are loaded with swingmen,
talent, and youth. The only thing they are missing is a solid, name-brand
center. If they could land disgruntled Jamaal Magloire for any one player not
named Shawn Marion, they would be challengers to the Lakers for the division's
top prize.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Kevin Garnett is not tired after any Olympics. He is ready to repeat as MVP.
He will again have a monster year. But will his aging sidekicks make it through
the rigors of the regular season? Will Sam Cassell either get an extension or
just play anyway? Will Michael Olowokandi finally learn to play strong inside
rather than taking baby hook shots from two feet out? A lot of questions. If
everything comes together, they will beat out both the Nuggets and the Jazz for
the Northwest Divisional championship. But if it doesn't, they won't be too far
behind, and they will be in the playoffs.
Utah Jazz
Unless Jerry Sloan unexpectedly retires at some point this season, Utah is
going to have a terrific year. He has all the talent in the world at every
position. He has a solid and deep frontcourt. He has one of the best young point
guards in the world in Carlos Arroyo. His guys WILL play tough, it's not even a
question. And they will present a formidable challenge to the Nuggets and the
Wolves for the top spot.
Memphis Grizzlies
Last year was not a fluke. The Grizzlies might not make it back to 50 wins
but they will have another strong year.
Lottery:
Seattle SuperSonics, Portland Trail Blazers, Golden State Warriors, LA Clippers, Sacramento Kings, New Orleans Hornets, Dallas Mavericks