Orlando
In the famous Monty Hall problem, the "surviving" door somewhat mysteriously attains higher probabilities. In Orlando, the only "surviving" player from last year's roster is Andrew DeClercq, and if he were to attain higher playing time, it would be a mystery of historic proportions. Don't worry, it's not going to happen.
The Monty Hall problem works like this. You pick which one of three doors you think has the prize inside it. That leaves two doors unchosen. At least one of them must be empty. The host, knowing which it is, opens the empty one and asks if you'd like to stay with your original choice or move to the other door.
Many people incorrectly assume that the probability is 50-50. They figure initially your chances of picking the right door are one-in-three but now there are only two doors so the probability is just one-in-two and it doesn't matter if you switch or not.
That's a fallacy.
The probability of the door you picked initially being the right one is still one-in-three. That means the remaining probability is still in the other door, the one unopened by the host, the one that "survived."
Andrew DeClercq survived as the only one of twelve players. If he were a door to prosperity, he would have an 11-in-12 chance of being the money player. That's more than 90%.
But will he see increased playing time? Not likely. He has averaged about 17 minutes per game both last year and in his career, and that's not likely to change. If anything, it will decrease, as he now has both Tony Battie and Kelvin Cato in front of him in the rotation. Out of 48 minutes, he'd be lucky if he gets to play 15.
You may ask where are Pat Garrity and Grant Hill in this analysis. The answer is on the injured list. And the good news we have been hearing about their health continues unabated. Garrity reported toThe Orlando Sentinel(see newslines below) that he had his last visit with the doctor and is ready to go. He has played with Hill and both have been sharp and ready.
The Magic may be quite deep this year if both are healthy.
TEAM NOTES
The Magic have released the complete 2004-2005 regular season schedule.
Our own Steve Kyler ofBasketball News Serviceswrites: Because the story must be reported, it will be reported but the premise is simply – This is not going to happen! – The City of Kansas City is making eyes for a NBA team using a new 20,000-seat, $250 million arena as the carrot. Expected to be the centerpiece of a new downtown entertainment and convention district in Kansas City, the voters in KC approved the project, which is scheduled to open in 2007. Immediately the assumption is that teams such as the Orlando Magic who are in one of the oldest buildings in the league would look at relocating in favor of fighting for a new building, and while the Magic are looking at some different avenues - moving to Kansas City is not one of them.
Tim Povtak ofThe Orlando Sentinelwrites: [Pat] Garrity, who was the Magic's best long-range shooter the previous two seasons, worked out with Grant Hill at Duke University this summer. He believes he and Hill will give the rebuilt Magic more depth than they have had in many years."I understand the skeptics [about Hill], but I'm an optimistic person," he said. "We played ball for four hard days and there was never a day he was sore. He looked healthy, explosive to me, but he thought he didn't have a good first step."... His return will give them quick offense in reserve, and he is able to play any of the forward positions. He likes the almost complete turnover in personnel. From the original 12-man roster that started last season, only center Andrew DeClercq is expected to be back for the opener this season.
Richard Justice ofThe Houston Chroniclewrites: We're a forgiving people. We believe in second chances. So we're not going to focus on the baggage Rocket Tracy McGrady brings from Orlando.We barely care that he occasionally fell asleep in meetings. We're not going to mention the day he scolded then-coach Doc Rivers for referring to him as "Tracy." (McGrady told Rivers he wanted to be known only as "T-Mac.") We're certainly going to overlook the time a trainer asked where his knee hurt, and McGrady responded: "Where do you want it to hurt?" We won't even get into the fact that some of his teammates wondered how much he really was hurting when he sat out a game with a sore knee. During that game, he criticized his teammates and coach Johnny Davis in a television interview. And we're most definitely going to forget that McGrady complained he hadn't been consulted when the Magic acquired Juwan Howard. Welcome to Houston, Tracy.
Darren Sabedra ofThe San Jose Mercury-Newswrites:Roland Williams, cut near the end of training camp in 2003, didn't need his arm twisted to rejoin the Raiders this season. Even so, the team pulled out all the stops to re-sign the veteran tight end... After his release, Williams worked out at a renowned sports facility in the Phoenix area. There, he met Nomar Garciaparra and Mia Hamm, the Orlando Magic's Steve Francis and the Boston Celtics' Rick Fox.